Let us put emotions aside and connect the dots. Kenyan politics has a strange way of rewarding those who understand that you do not always have to win an election to determine its outcome. Sometimes, you only need to control enough votes to prevent somebody else from winning.
This is why I have been watching Rigathi Gachagua. I have tried to look beyond the insults, the political rallies, the tribal emotions and the public quarrels between him and President William Ruto. I have tried to put together the pieces from different corners and ask a very uncomfortable question: What if Rigathi Gachagua is not Ruto’s biggest political problem, but one of the most useful pieces on Ruto’s political chessboard?
I know this sounds provocative. It should. Because Kenyan politics is not a Sunday school lesson. Politicians do not always tell us what they are doing. Sometimes their words say one thing while the political consequences of their actions produce something entirely different.
I am not saying that Gachagua is secretly sitting in a room with Ruto plotting the 2027 election. I have no evidence of such an arrangement. What I am saying is more uncomfortable: the political path Gachagua is taking could end up doing exactly what William Ruto needs most—keeping the opposition divided. And if that happens, who benefits? Ruto. That is where the dots begin to connect.
This is why Gachagua fascinates me. He may not need to win. He may only need to remain relevant. Think about it. If he controls a significant portion of the Mt Kenya vote, he becomes a valuable political asset. If he refuses to surrender that constituency to another opposition candidate, he becomes even more valuable. If Ruto wants those votes, he has to negotiate. If the opposition wants those votes, it has to negotiate. Suddenly, the man who cannot—or may not be able to—run for President becomes one of the most important men in the presidential race. That is the paradox. You do not have to be on the ballot to determine who wins the ballot. And this is where I begin to wonder whether we have misunderstood Gachagua's political mission. Maybe his mission is not State House. Maybe it is leverage.
There is an old principle in politics: when you cannot understand a political move, ask who benefits from it. So let us ask. Suppose the opposition remains divided. Suppose Gachagua maintains his own political base. Suppose Mt Kenya voters are split between several political formations. Suppose no opposition candidate manages to consolidate enough support to comfortably cross the presidential threshold. Who benefits? The incumbent. Who is the incumbent? William Ruto. This does not prove that Gachagua is working for Ruto. It does not prove there is a secret agreement. It does not prove that Gachagua has been sent on a mission. But it does demonstrate something politically important: A strategy can serve somebody's interests even when the person executing it claims to be fighting that person. That is the distinction Kenyans must understand.
This is why I have been watching Rigathi Gachagua. I have tried to look beyond the insults, the political rallies, the tribal emotions and the public quarrels between him and President William Ruto. I have tried to put together the pieces from different corners and ask a very uncomfortable question: What if Rigathi Gachagua is not Ruto’s biggest political problem, but one of the most useful pieces on Ruto’s political chessboard?
I know this sounds provocative. It should. Because Kenyan politics is not a Sunday school lesson. Politicians do not always tell us what they are doing. Sometimes their words say one thing while the political consequences of their actions produce something entirely different.
I am not saying that Gachagua is secretly sitting in a room with Ruto plotting the 2027 election. I have no evidence of such an arrangement. What I am saying is more uncomfortable: the political path Gachagua is taking could end up doing exactly what William Ruto needs most—keeping the opposition divided. And if that happens, who benefits? Ruto. That is where the dots begin to connect.
Gachagua cannot be ignored—but can he become President? Let us start with the uncomfortable reality. Gachagua was impeached and removed from the office of Deputy President in 2024. The High Court later upheld the impeachment while finding that his right to a fair hearing had been violated and awarding him KSh50 million (This ammount equals the money he could have earned as salary if he had remained in office. Did he receive it?) in constitutional damages.
The legal and constitutional questions surrounding his eligibility for future elective office remain politically significant. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that Gachagua cannot successfully mount a presidential bid in 2027. Then what? This is the question I think Kenyans should be asking. If the presidency is not realistically within his reach, what is the political prize he is pursuing? Because politicians do not remain in politics merely to make noise. Politics is about power. It is about influence. It is about bargaining. It is about controlling constituencies. And, whether we like it or not, it is also about money.
Gachagua has repeatedly presented himself as a major political voice from Mt Kenya. His political influence is therefore not necessarily dependent on occupying State House. He can be valuable without being the candidate. In fact, he could be more valuable as a kingmaker than as a candidate. And that is where things become interesting.
The legal and constitutional questions surrounding his eligibility for future elective office remain politically significant. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that Gachagua cannot successfully mount a presidential bid in 2027. Then what? This is the question I think Kenyans should be asking. If the presidency is not realistically within his reach, what is the political prize he is pursuing? Because politicians do not remain in politics merely to make noise. Politics is about power. It is about influence. It is about bargaining. It is about controlling constituencies. And, whether we like it or not, it is also about money.
Gachagua has repeatedly presented himself as a major political voice from Mt Kenya. His political influence is therefore not necessarily dependent on occupying State House. He can be valuable without being the candidate. In fact, he could be more valuable as a kingmaker than as a candidate. And that is where things become interesting.
What if Gachagua does not need to defeat Ruto? Perhaps we have been asking the wrong question. We keep asking: Can Gachagua defeat Ruto? Maybe the better question is: Can Gachagua prevent somebody else from defeating Ruto? Those are two very different political missions.
Consider the mathematics. Kenya does not elect a President merely because he receives the largest number of votes. A presidential candidate must satisfy the constitutional threshold required to win. That means opposition fragmentation can be more valuable to an incumbent than popularity.
If three opposition candidates each take substantial portions of the anti-government vote, the incumbent does not necessarily need to become more popular. He simply needs his opponents to remain divided. That is why a politically strong Gachagua who runs independently—or remains at the centre of a separate political formation—could be extremely useful to Ruto. Not because Gachagua supports Ruto. But because his presence could divide the very voters Ruto fears losing. And politics is sometimes that simple.
Consider the mathematics. Kenya does not elect a President merely because he receives the largest number of votes. A presidential candidate must satisfy the constitutional threshold required to win. That means opposition fragmentation can be more valuable to an incumbent than popularity.
If three opposition candidates each take substantial portions of the anti-government vote, the incumbent does not necessarily need to become more popular. He simply needs his opponents to remain divided. That is why a politically strong Gachagua who runs independently—or remains at the centre of a separate political formation—could be extremely useful to Ruto. Not because Gachagua supports Ruto. But because his presence could divide the very voters Ruto fears losing. And politics is sometimes that simple.
Then we come to Mt Kenya. Gachagua knows that region better than most national politicians. He knows its anger. He knows its grievances. He knows its relationship with Ruto. He also knows something else: Ruto needs Mt Kenya. The President cannot simply wish away a region that played a significant role in the 2022 election.
That is why the statement Gachagua made during the Kiaraho funeral deserves more attention than it received. He told Ruto to make peace with the community. Think about those words. If your objective is simply to destroy Ruto politically, why tell him to make peace with the very community whose support he desperately needs?
Of course, one can interpret the statement as an attack—a demand that Ruto repair the relationship he damaged. But there is another interpretation. Perhaps Gachagua understands that Ruto must reconcile with Mt Kenya. Perhaps he understands that the President still has a political pathway through that community. Perhaps he is positioning himself as the broker through whom that reconciliation could happen. And if Gachagua becomes the man who decides whether Mt Kenya reconciles with Ruto or rejects him, his political bargaining power becomes enormous. That is not weakness. That is political leverage.
That is why the statement Gachagua made during the Kiaraho funeral deserves more attention than it received. He told Ruto to make peace with the community. Think about those words. If your objective is simply to destroy Ruto politically, why tell him to make peace with the very community whose support he desperately needs?
Of course, one can interpret the statement as an attack—a demand that Ruto repair the relationship he damaged. But there is another interpretation. Perhaps Gachagua understands that Ruto must reconcile with Mt Kenya. Perhaps he understands that the President still has a political pathway through that community. Perhaps he is positioning himself as the broker through whom that reconciliation could happen. And if Gachagua becomes the man who decides whether Mt Kenya reconciles with Ruto or rejects him, his political bargaining power becomes enormous. That is not weakness. That is political leverage.
The opposition's greatest problem may not be Ruto. Here is the part that opposition supporters will not like. They keep looking at Ruto. They should also be looking at themselves. The biggest danger to an opposition seeking to defeat an incumbent is not always the incumbent. Sometimes it is fragmentation.
Kenya has seen this movie before. Political parties announce unity. Leaders hold meetings. They shake hands. They issue statements about a “united opposition.” Then the negotiations begin. Who will be the candidate? Who will be deputy? Who gets which region? Who controls the coalition? Who gets the presidential ticket? Who gets the money? Who gets the parliamentary seats? And before long, the unity begins to crack.
Gachagua has publicly supported opposition unity, so it would be unfair to claim that he openly wants the opposition divided. But politics is not judged only by declarations. It is judged by outcomes. If every political leader insists on retaining his own political base, his own party, his own regional machinery and his own bargaining position, the opposition can remain technically united while being practically divided. And that is precisely the kind of opposition an incumbent would love to face.
Gachagua has publicly supported opposition unity, so it would be unfair to claim that he openly wants the opposition divided. But politics is not judged only by declarations. It is judged by outcomes. If every political leader insists on retaining his own political base, his own party, his own regional machinery and his own bargaining position, the opposition can remain technically united while being practically divided. And that is precisely the kind of opposition an incumbent would love to face.
This is why Gachagua fascinates me. He may not need to win. He may only need to remain relevant. Think about it. If he controls a significant portion of the Mt Kenya vote, he becomes a valuable political asset. If he refuses to surrender that constituency to another opposition candidate, he becomes even more valuable. If Ruto wants those votes, he has to negotiate. If the opposition wants those votes, it has to negotiate. Suddenly, the man who cannot—or may not be able to—run for President becomes one of the most important men in the presidential race. That is the paradox. You do not have to be on the ballot to determine who wins the ballot. And this is where I begin to wonder whether we have misunderstood Gachagua's political mission. Maybe his mission is not State House. Maybe it is leverage.
There is an old principle in politics: when you cannot understand a political move, ask who benefits from it. So let us ask. Suppose the opposition remains divided. Suppose Gachagua maintains his own political base. Suppose Mt Kenya voters are split between several political formations. Suppose no opposition candidate manages to consolidate enough support to comfortably cross the presidential threshold. Who benefits? The incumbent. Who is the incumbent? William Ruto. This does not prove that Gachagua is working for Ruto. It does not prove there is a secret agreement. It does not prove that Gachagua has been sent on a mission. But it does demonstrate something politically important: A strategy can serve somebody's interests even when the person executing it claims to be fighting that person. That is the distinction Kenyans must understand.
Perhaps Gachagua is playing a much bigger game. Maybe Gachagua genuinely wants Ruto out. Maybe he genuinely wants to build a new political order. Maybe he genuinely believes he is defending Mt Kenya. Maybe he wants to become the opposition's kingmaker. Maybe he wants a powerful negotiating position in the next government. All these possibilities can exist simultaneously. But there is one possibility we should not dismiss: What if Gachagua's greatest political value to Ruto is precisely his ability to keep the anti-Ruto vote from becoming one solid block? That would make him an extraordinary political asset to the very man he publicly opposes. And there is nothing unusual about such political contradictions. History is full of political actors whose actions produced consequences very different from their public intentions.
Then there is the money question. The High Court awarded Gachagua KSh50 million in damages after finding constitutional violations in the impeachment process. The award does not mean Gachagua was “paid a salary.” It was a judicial remedy for violations of his rights. But politically, the outcome is nevertheless interesting. He lost the Deputy Presidency, but he did not walk away completely empty-handed. This matters because political survival requires resources. A politician with money, name recognition, a regional constituency and a political organization can remain relevant for a long time. Gachagua has all four.
So perhaps we should stop thinking of him merely as a former Deputy President trying to return to power. Perhaps we should start thinking of him as a political broker positioning himself for the biggest negotiation of his career.
Then there is the money question. The High Court awarded Gachagua KSh50 million in damages after finding constitutional violations in the impeachment process. The award does not mean Gachagua was “paid a salary.” It was a judicial remedy for violations of his rights. But politically, the outcome is nevertheless interesting. He lost the Deputy Presidency, but he did not walk away completely empty-handed. This matters because political survival requires resources. A politician with money, name recognition, a regional constituency and a political organization can remain relevant for a long time. Gachagua has all four.
So perhaps we should stop thinking of him merely as a former Deputy President trying to return to power. Perhaps we should start thinking of him as a political broker positioning himself for the biggest negotiation of his career.
Here is my bitter pill. I may be wrong. Gachagua may be genuinely committed to defeating Ruto. He may have no secret arrangement with State House. He may be pursuing his own political ambitions with absolutely no intention of helping the President. But if that is the case, opposition leaders should ask themselves a very serious question: Why are they allowing their political future to depend on a man whose strategy could leave them divided? And if Gachagua's strategy ultimately produces an opposition divided into several competing camps, while Ruto remains the only candidate with a consolidated national government machinery, then the President does not need Gachagua to campaign for him. He only needs Gachagua to remain Gachagua. That may be enough.
So let us stop shouting. Let us stop calling each other names. Let us stop reducing every political argument to tribe. Let us stop believing every politician simply because he speaks our language, comes from our region or attacks the politician we dislike. Let us watch. Watch the alliances. Watch the defections. Watch the coalition negotiations. Watch who refuses to step aside. Watch who insists on retaining a separate political base. Watch who negotiates with whom. Watch who benefits whenever the opposition fragments. And most importantly, watch Mt Kenya. Because that may be where the real battle for 2027 is fought.
So let us stop shouting. Let us stop calling each other names. Let us stop reducing every political argument to tribe. Let us stop believing every politician simply because he speaks our language, comes from our region or attacks the politician we dislike. Let us watch. Watch the alliances. Watch the defections. Watch the coalition negotiations. Watch who refuses to step aside. Watch who insists on retaining a separate political base. Watch who negotiates with whom. Watch who benefits whenever the opposition fragments. And most importantly, watch Mt Kenya. Because that may be where the real battle for 2027 is fought.
And perhaps the most important question will not be whether Rigathi Gachagua supports William Ruto. The more important question may be: Does Rigathi Gachagua's political strategy make it easier or harder to defeat William Ruto? If the answer is “easier,” then Gachagua is a problem for Ruto. But if the answer is “harder,” then we have to ask the question nobody wants to ask: Is Rigathi Gachagua fighting Ruto—or is he, knowingly or unknowingly, helping him? That is the bitter pill. And before Kenyans swallow the political propaganda coming from either side, perhaps we should do one simple thing: Connect the dots.
